Soil seed bank in different vegetation types in the Loess Plateau region and its role in vegetation restoration

In the Loess Plateau region, soil erosion is a serious problem. Vegetation restoration is an effective approach to control soil erosion and improve ecosystems. The soil seed bank generally plays an important role in vegetation restoration after disturbance. Thus, we reviewed soil seed bank studies to reveal the soil seed bank characteristics and its role in vegetation restoration in three vegetation types (forest, forest‐steppe, and steppe). We selected 38 seed bank studies and analyzed several seed bank characteristics, such as seed density, species composition, and the relationship between seed size and seed bank. We also assessed the role of the soil seed bank in vegetation restoration. The soil seed bank density ranged from 2,331 ± 1,993 to 6,985 ± 4,047 seeds/m² among the different vegetation types. In the soil seed bank, perennial herbs and grasses accounted for 51.5% of the total species. Native species that were dominant or common in the standing vegetation usually had relatively high seed bank densities. Moreover, species with smaller seeds generally had higher soil seed bank densities. The present study indicates that the soil seed bank plays a significant role in spontaneous vegetation restoration, especially during the early successional stages in abandoned slope farmlands and grazing‐excluded grasslands. However, species with large seeds or transient soil seed banks should be reintroduced through seeding to accelerate target species restoration. More studies on soil seed banks need to be conducted to comprehensively reveal their characteristics.     

Agriculture erases climate constraints on soil nematode communities across large spatial scales

Anthropogenic conversion of natural to agricultural land reduces aboveground biodiversity. Yet, the overall consequences of land‐use changes on belowground biodiversity at large scales remain insufficiently explored. Furthermore, the effects of conversion on different organism groups are usually determined at the taxonomic level, while an integrated investigation that includes functional and phylogenetic levels is rare and absent for belowground organisms. Here, we studied the Earth's most abundant metazoa—nematodes—to examine the effects of conversion from natural to agricultural habitats on soil biodiversity across a large spatial scale. To this aim, we investigated the diversity and composition of nematode communities at the taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic level in 16 assemblage pairs (32 sites in total with 16 in each habitat type) in mainland China. While the overall alpha and beta diversity did not differ between natural and agricultural systems, all three alpha diversity facets decreased with latitude in natural habitats. Both alpha and beta diversity levels were driven by climatic differences in natural habitats, while none of the diversity levels changed in agricultural systems. This indicates that land conversion affects soil biodiversity in a geographically dependent manner and that agriculture could erase climatic constraints on soil biodiversity at such a scale. Additionally, the functional composition of nematode communities was more dissimilar in agricultural than in natural habitats, while the phylogenetic composition was more similar, indicating that changes among different biodiversity facets are asynchronous. Our study deepens the understanding of land‐use effects on soil nematode diversity across large spatial scales. Moreover, the detected asynchrony of taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity highlights the necessity to monitor multiple facets of soil biodiversity in ecological studies such as those investigating environmental changes.     

The Net Landscape Carbon Balance—Integrating terrestrial and aquatic carbon fluxes in a managed boreal forest landscape in Sweden

The boreal biome exchanges large amounts of carbon (C) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) with the atmosphere and thus significantly affects the global climate. A managed boreal landscape consists of various sinks and sources of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and dissolved organic and inorganic carbon (DOC and DIC) across forests, mires, lakes, and streams. Due to the spatial heterogeneity, large uncertainties exist regarding the net landscape carbon balance (NLCB). In this study, we compiled terrestrial and aquatic fluxes of CO₂, CH₄, DOC, DIC, and harvested C obtained from tall‐tower eddy covariance measurements, stream monitoring, and remote sensing of biomass stocks for an entire boreal catchment (~68 km²) in Sweden to estimate the NLCB across the land–water–atmosphere continuum. Our results showed that this managed boreal forest landscape was a net C sink (NLCB = 39 g C m^?2 year^?1) with the landscape–atmosphere CO₂ exchange being the dominant component, followed by the C export via harvest and streams. Accounting for the global warming potential of CH₄, the landscape was a GHG sink of 237 g CO₂‐eq m^?2 year^?1, thus providing a climate‐cooling effect. The CH₄ flux contribution to the annual GHG budget increased from 0.6% during spring to 3.2% during winter. The aquatic C loss was most significant during spring contributing 8% to the annual NLCB. We further found that abiotic controls (e.g., air temperature and incoming radiation) regulated the temporal variability of the NLCB whereas land cover types (e.g., mire vs. forest) and management practices (e.g., clear‐cutting) determined their spatial variability. Our study advocates the need for integrating terrestrial and aquatic fluxes at the landscape scale based on tall‐tower eddy covariance measurements combined with biomass stock and stream monitoring to develop a holistic understanding of the NLCB of managed boreal forest landscapes and to better evaluate their potential for mitigating climate change.     

Projecting terrestrial biodiversity intactness with GLOBIO 4

Scenario‐based biodiversity modelling is a powerful approach to evaluate how possible future socio‐economic developments may affect biodiversity. Here, we evaluated the changes in terrestrial biodiversity intactness, expressed by the mean species abundance (MSA) metric, resulting from three of the shared socio‐economic pathways (SSPs) combined with different levels of climate change (according to representative concentration pathways [RCPs]): a future oriented towards sustainability (SSP1xRCP2.6), a future determined by a politically divided world (SSP3xRCP6.0) and a future with continued global dependency on fossil fuels (SSP5xRCP8.5). To this end, we first updated the GLOBIO model, which now runs at a spatial resolution of 10 arc‐seconds (~300 m), contains new modules for downscaling land use and for quantifying impacts of hunting in the tropics, and updated modules to quantify impacts of climate change, land use, habitat fragmentation and nitrogen pollution. We then used the updated model to project terrestrial biodiversity intactness from 2015 to 2050 as a function of land use and climate changes corresponding with the selected scenarios. We estimated a global area‐weighted mean MSA of 0.56 for 2015. Biodiversity intactness declined in all three scenarios, yet the decline was smaller in the sustainability scenario (?0.02) than the regional rivalry and fossil‐fuelled development scenarios (?0.06 and ?0.05 respectively). We further found considerable variation in projected biodiversity change among different world regions, with large future losses particularly for sub‐Saharan Africa. In some scenario‐region combinations, we projected future biodiversity recovery due to reduced demands for agricultural land, yet this recovery was counteracted by increased impacts of other pressures (notably climate change and road disturbance). Effective measures to halt or reverse the decline of terrestrial biodiversity should not only reduce land demand (e.g. by increasing agricultural productivity and dietary changes) but also focus on reducing or mitigating the impacts of other pressures.     

The impact of interventions in the global land and agri‐food sectors on Nature’s Contributions to People and the UN Sustainable Development Goals

Interlocked challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss, and land degradation require transformative interventions in the land management and food production sectors to reduce carbon emissions, strengthen adaptive capacity, and increase food security. However, deciding which interventions to pursue and understanding their relative co‐benefits with and trade‐offs against different social and environmental goals have been difficult without comparisons across a range of possible actions. This study examined 40 different options, implemented through land management, value chains, or risk management, for their relative impacts across 18 Nature's Contributions to People (NCPs) and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We find that a relatively small number of interventions show positive synergies with both SDGs and NCPs with no significant adverse trade‐offs; these include improved cropland management, improved grazing land management, improved livestock management, agroforestry, integrated water management, increased soil organic carbon content, reduced soil erosion, salinization, and compaction, fire management, reduced landslides and hazards, reduced pollution, reduced post‐harvest losses, improved energy use in food systems, and disaster risk management. Several interventions show potentially significant negative impacts on both SDGs and NCPs; these include bioenergy and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, afforestation, and some risk sharing measures, like commercial crop insurance. Our results demonstrate that a better understanding of co‐benefits and trade‐offs of different policy approaches can help decision‐makers choose the more effective, or at the very minimum, more benign interventions for implementation.     

Climate change decreases the cooling effect from postfire albedo in boreal North America

Fire is a primary disturbance in boreal forests and generates both positive and negative climate forcings. The influence of fire on surface albedo is a predominantly negative forcing in boreal forests, and one of the strongest overall, due to increased snow exposure in the winter and spring months. Albedo forcings are spatially and temporally heterogeneous and depend on a variety of factors related to soils, topography, climate, land cover/vegetation type, successional dynamics, time since fire, season, and fire severity. However, how these variables interact to influence albedo is not well understood, and quantifying these relationships and predicting postfire albedo becomes increasingly important as the climate changes and management frameworks evolve to consider climate impacts. Here we developed a MODIS‐derived ‘blue sky’ albedo product and a novel machine learning modeling framework to predict fire‐driven changes in albedo under historical and future climate scenarios across boreal North America. Converted to radiative forcing (RF), we estimated that fires generate an annual mean cooling of ?1.77 ± 1.35 W/m² from albedo under historical climate conditions (1971–2000) integrated over 70 years postfire. Increasing postfire albedo along a south–north climatic gradient was offset by a nearly opposite gradient in solar insolation, such that large‐scale spatial patterns in RF were minimal. Our models suggest that climate change will lead to decreases in mean annual postfire albedo, and hence a decreasing strength of the negative RF, a trend dominated by decreased snow cover in spring months. Considering the range of future climate scenarios and model uncertainties, we estimate that for fires burning in the current era (2016) the cooling effect from long‐term postfire albedo will be reduced by 15%–28% due to climate change.     

Afforestation for climate change mitigation: Potentials,risks and trade‐offs

Afforestation is considered a cost‐effective and readily available climate change mitigation option. In recent studies afforestation is presented as a major solution to limit climate change. However, estimates of afforestation potential vary widely. Moreover, the risks in global mitigation policy and the negative trade‐offs with food security are often not considered. Here we present a new approach to assess the economic potential of afforestation with the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model framework. In addition, we discuss the role of afforestation in mitigation pathways and the effects of afforestation on the food system under increasingly ambitious climate targets. We show that afforestation has a mitigation potential of 4.9 GtCO₂/year at 200 US$/tCO₂ in 2050 leading to large‐scale application in an SSP2 scenario aiming for 2°C (410 GtCO₂ cumulative up to 2100). Afforestation reduces the overall costs of mitigation policy. However, it may lead to lower mitigation ambition and lock‐in situations in other sectors. Moreover, it bears risks to implementation and permanence as the negative emissions are increasingly located in regions with high investment risks and weak governance, for example in Sub‐Saharan Africa. Afforestation also requires large amounts of land (up to 1,100 Mha) leading to large reductions in agricultural land. The increased competition for land could lead to higher food prices and an increased population at risk of hunger. Our results confirm that afforestation has substantial potential for mitigation. At the same time, we highlight that major risks and trade‐offs are involved. Pathways aiming to limit climate change to 2°C or even 1.5°C need to minimize these risks and trade‐offs in order to achieve mitigation sustainably.     

The future of bioenergy

Energy from biomass plays a large and growing role in the global energy system. Energy from biomass can make significant contributions to reducing carbon emissions, especially from difficult‐to‐decarbonize sectors like aviation, heavy transport, and manufacturing. But land‐intensive bioenergy often entails substantial carbon emissions from land‐use change as well as production, harvesting, and transportation. In addition, land‐intensive bioenergy scales only with the utilization of vast amounts of land, a resource that is fundamentally limited in supply. Because of the land constraint, the intrinsically low yields of energy per unit of land area, and rapid technological progress in competing technologies, land intensive bioenergy makes the most sense as a transitional element of the global energy mix, playing an important role over the next few decades and then fading, probably after mid‐century. Managing an effective trajectory for land‐intensive bioenergy will require an unusual mix of policies and incentives that encourage appropriate utilization in the short term but minimize lock‐in in the longer term.     

Projected climate and land use change alter western blacklegged tick phenology,seasonal host‐seeking suitability and human encounter risk in California

Global environmental change is having profound effects on the ecology of infectious disease systems, which are widely anticipated to become more pronounced under future climate and land use change. Arthropod vectors of disease are particularly sensitive to changes in abiotic conditions such as temperature and moisture availability. Recent research has focused on shifting environmental suitability for, and geographic distribution of, vector species under projected climate change scenarios. However, shifts in seasonal activity patterns, or phenology, may also have dramatic consequences for human exposure risk, local vector abundance and pathogen transmission dynamics. Moreover, changes in land use are likely to alter human–vector contact rates in ways that models of changing climate suitability are unlikely to capture. Here we used climate and land use projections for California coupled with seasonal species distribution models to explore the response of the western blacklegged tick (Ixodes pacificus), the primary Lyme disease vector in western North America, to projected climate and land use change. Specifically, we investigated how environmental suitability for tick host‐seeking changes seasonally, how the magnitude and direction of changing seasonal suitability differs regionally across California, and how land use change shifts human tick‐encounter risk across the state. We found vector responses to changing climate and land use vary regionally within California under different future scenarios. Under a hotter, drier scenario and more extreme land use change, the duration and extent of seasonal host‐seeking activity increases in northern California, but declines in the south. In contrast, under a hotter, wetter scenario seasonal host‐seeking declines in northern California, but increases in the south. Notably, regardless of future scenario, projected increases in developed land adjacent to current human population centers substantially increase potential human–vector encounter risk across the state. These results highlight regional variability and potential nonlinearity in the response of disease vectors to environmental change.     

Predicting soil carbon changes in switchgrass grown on marginal lands under climate change and adaptation strategies

The United States Great Lakes Region (USGLR) is a critical geographic area for future bioenergy production. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) is widely considered a carbon (C)‐neutral or C‐negative bioenergy production system, but projected increases in air temperature and precipitation due to climate change might substantially alter soil organic C (SOC) dynamics and storage in soils. This study examined long‐term SOC changes in switchgrass grown on marginal land in the USGLR under current and projected climate, predicted using a process‐based model (Systems Approach to Land‐Use Sustainability) extensively calibrated with a wealth of plant and soil measurements at nine experimental sites. Simulations indicate that these soils are likely a net C sink under switchgrass (average gain 0.87 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1), although substantial variation in the rate of SOC accumulation was predicted (range: 0.2–1.3 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1). Principal component analysis revealed that the predicted intersite variability in SOC sequestration was related in part to differences in climatic characteristics, and to a lesser extent, to heterogeneous soils. Although climate change impacts on switchgrass plant growth were predicted to be small (4%–6% decrease on average), the increased soil respiration was predicted to partially negate SOC accumulations down to 70% below historical rates in the most extreme scenarios. Increasing N fertilizer rate and decreasing harvest intensity both had modest SOC sequestration benefits under projected climate, whereas introducing genotypes better adapted to the longer growing seasons was a much more effective strategy. Best‐performing adaptation scenarios were able to offset >60% of the climate change impacts, leading to SOC sequestration 0.7 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1 under projected climate. On average, this was 0.3 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1 more C sequestered than the no adaptation baseline. These findings provide crucial knowledge needed to guide policy and operational management for maximizing SOC sequestration of future bioenergy production on marginal lands in the USGLR.